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Governing From the Future

Governing From the Future

Today, the Centrale Bank van Aruba (CBA) published its most recent Government Policy Study titled ‘Governing from the Future - Leading with Impact: Prospects, policies, and pathways for Aruba 2040’.

Notwithstanding the importance of economic growth, the impact of inclusive economic development is fundamental to economic wellbeing. Governing from the future and leading with impact emphasize the need to develop our fragile economy into one that is inclusive, resilient, and sustainable. The key hereto is a deep understanding of the intended and unintended consequences of our past and present policy choices and decisions. It requires a profound commitment to the next generation to deliver shared wealth and prosperity to safeguard security, as well as to provide equal and equitable opportunities, and to restore and regenerate our natural habitats and the environment.

In utilizing a policy framework for measuring economic wellbeing and applying the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs), as well as the concept of Futures Thinking, this report presents three alternative policy scenarios and multiple pathways for Aruba in 2040. The alternative futures describe a (i) policy as usual scenario in which traditional ways of governance and policy making persist at the cost of the environment and increased poverty. Thus, there is limited adaptation and innovation in policy decisions and implementation. In the second policy scenario, (ii) structural policy reforms are introduced to remediate long-standing institutional failures and boost market-driven economic growth. Yet, the subsequent risks of market failures and the externalization of costs, including persistent intergenerational inequity and climate risks, endure. The third policy scenario emphasizes a (iii) fundamental policy shift towards strengthening productivity, innovation, and institutional capabilities, as well as fostering inclusion, healthy social ecologies, and intergenerational equity. Rather than reform the present, a policy shift emphasizes transforming from the future in an impactful manner.

The report can be downloaded here